哈叶克的生产程序学说

(3)哈叶克的生产程序学说

货物的生产经过许多程序。澳国学派的先进孟额(Karl Menger)的《经济学原理》(Grunds－tze)及庞巴威克(B9hm-Bawerk)的《资本的积极理论》(Positive Theorie des Kapitals)已发其端。哈叶克(F.A.Hayek)继之，大加阐述，成为今日经济学界之一个权威学说。向蒲彼得解释生产程序如下:

“It is usual to classify goods in‘orders’，according to their distance fromthe final act of consumption.Consumption goods are of the first order goods fromcombination of which consumption goods immediately originate are of the second order，and so on，in continually higher or remote orders.Itmust not be forgotten that only goods ready for consumption in the hands of consumers fall in the first order and that bread at the baker's forexample，is strictly speaking only bought in the first by combining it with the labour of errant-boy.Goods of lower order，if not immediately the gifts of nature，always originate in a combination of goods of higher order.Although the scheme constructed otherwise，it is best for our purposes to rank a good in highestof the orders in which it ever appears.Accordingly labour is，for example，a good of the highestorder，because itenters at the very beginning of all production，although it is also to be found at all other stages.”^[50]

在叙述哈叶克学说以前，让我先把他们几个名词加以解释。①生产的原始手段(Originalmeans of production)包括土地(Land)与劳力(Labour)。②生产要素(Factors of production)包括原始手段与资本(Capital)。③生产者货物(Producers'goods)即直接间接用在消费者货物之一切货物。④中间出品(Intermediate products)非原始手段的生产者货物，即在原始手段与消费者货物中间的货物。⑤生产阶段(Stages of production)分为高等阶段(High stages)与低等阶段(Lower stages)。高等阶段距消费者货物的制造程序较远，低等阶段则较近。

他说，近世货币学说集中在一点，就是货币增加对于人生的影响，是自然的趋势。然而好几十年已经过去了，直到最近，大家才觉得货币的价值与货币数量的变更对于界限效用学说的基本观念应该有严密地研究。

“It was inevitable thatmodern theory should be sympathetic towards a point of viewwhich traces the effects of an increase ofmoney to its influence on individual decisions.But a generation passed before serious attempts were made to base the explanation of the value ofmoney and the effects of changes in the amount ofmoney upon the fundamental concepts ofmarginal utility theory”.^[51]

我们现靠着个人本位的方法，才能明了经济现象。近世的主观学说较之经典学派高超得多了。

“It is to this‘individualistic’method that we owe whatever understanding of economic phenomena;that the modern‘subject’theory has advanced beyond the classical school in its consistent use is probably its main advantage over their teaching.”^[52]

货币增加时，要看它注射的方向(货币减少时，要看它先从何处开始)。增加的货币先流到工商业者手内，或是直接流到公务人员手中，其结果或相反。

“...everything depends on the point where the additional money is injected into circulation(or where money is withdrawn fromcirculation)，and the effects may be quite opposite according as the additional money comes first into the hands of traders and manufacturers or directly into the hands of salaried people employed by the state.”^[53]

货币用在生产者货物之上，比用在消费者货物上要大得多。在美国，前者比后者约为12倍。

“...the amountofmoney spenton producers'goods during any period of time may be far greater than the amount spent for consumers'goods during the same period.It has been computed，indeed，that in the United States，payments for consumers'goods amount only to about one-twelfth of the paymentsmade for producers'goods of all kinds.”^[54]

哈叶克把生产程序理论用许多图表一层一层地表示出来，乃进入最有精彩的一段文字。他说，假设消费者决定把他的收入多储蓄一些而用在投资，则投资增加首先增加生产者货物的需求，而减少消费者货物的需求，结果，生产者货物价格必定比较地上涨，而消费者货物必定比较地下落。但是生产者货物价格不必同等上涨，也不必毫无例外。接近消费者货物的前一阶段的生产者货物价格因为受到消费者货物跌价的影响，应该比增加的货币可用在全部生产者货物的结果要相对地跌落，此一阶段的生产者货物价格虽然较为跌落，但是要比消费者货物价格跌得少些。这使最后的两个阶段中间的价格界限(Price margin)缩小了。价格界限缩小，可以使得用在低等阶段的钱比较地不合算而移到高等阶段上去。

“I begin...with the supposition that consumers decide to save and invest a larger proportion of their income.The immediate effect of increase in the demand for producers'goods and the decrease in the demand for consumers'goods will be that there will be a relative rise in the prices of the former and relative fall in the prices of the latter.But the prices of producers'goods will not rise equally，nor will they rise without exception.In the stages of production immediately preceeding that in which the final touches are given to consumers'goods，the effect of the fall in the prices of consumers'goods will be felt more strongly than the effect of the increase of the funds available for the purchase of the producers'goods of all kinds.The price of the product of this stage will，therefore，fall，but it will fall less than the prices of consumers'goods.Thismeans a narrowing of the price margin between the last two stages.But this narrowing of the price margin willmake the employment of the funds in the last stage less profitable relatively to the higher stages，and therefore some of the funds which had been used there will tend to be shifted to the higher stages.”^[55]

他说明生产程序如此复杂，货币数量增减所及的影响如此不平均以后，作一结论，说，人为的刺激归于无用，不如听其自然调节。这与货币数量说者所持的见解完全不同。

“The only way permanently to mobilise all available resources is，therefore，not to use artificial stimulants—whether during a crisis or thereafter—but to leave it to time to effect a permanent cure by the slow process of adapting the structure of production to the means available for capitalpurposes.”^[56]