中美2022预计gdp增长

2009年4月29日，普林斯顿

China-US Relationship in the New Era

Speech at Princeton University Princeton，April 29，2009

场景再现

普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）位于美国新泽西州的普林斯顿，属私立研究型大学，是8所常青藤盟校之一。初建于1746年，当时名为“新泽西学院”，1756年迁至普林斯顿，并于1896年改名为普林斯顿大学。该校在美是第五历史悠久的高等学府，第一为哈佛大学，第二为威廉玛丽学院，第三为耶鲁大学，第四为宾夕法尼亚大学。从普林斯顿大学走出了两位美国总统和44位美国州长。普林斯顿大学历史上共拥有33位诺贝尔奖得主。

我在讲话中针对当时盛行的所谓“中国崩溃论”重点讲了中国的发展，介绍了中国政府在缓解经济运行中的突出矛盾、增强信心、稳定预期等方面所做的工作。

柯庆生先生（Thomas Christensen），系普林斯顿大学国际关系学教授，曾任小布什政府负责中国（含台湾事务）和蒙古事务的助理国务卿帮办，回到普林斯顿大学后主持“中国与世界”研究项目。

演讲文稿

女士们、先生们、朋友们：

我很高兴应邀来到著名的普林斯顿大学作演讲。感谢柯庆生教授所作努力和周到安排。

借此机会，我想着重给大家介绍当前中国发展的一些情况和新时期的中美关系。

大家都深有体会，当今我们生活的世界，正处在经济金融危机之中。这场危机来势凶猛，波及全球，从金融领域扩散到实体经济，并且仍在扩散和蔓延，使世界经济遭受20世纪大萧条以来最为严峻的挑战，对各国经济发展和人民生活带来严重冲击。世界银行今年3月31日《全球经济展望》报告预测2009年世界经济将下滑1.7%，国际货币基金组织今年4月22日《世界经济展望》报告预测今年世界经济将收缩1.3%。

Ladies and Gentlemen，Dear friends，

It is a great pleasure to speak at the well-known Princeton University.I want to thank Professor Christensen for his invitation and thoughtful arrangements.

Let me use this opportunity to talk about the latest economic development in China and China-US relations in the new era.

I am sure we are all feeling the impact of the current economic and financial crisis，which is as serious as it is global.Starting in the financial sector，it has affected the real economy and continues to spread，posing the most serious challenge to the world economy since the Great Depression and dealing a heavy blow on the economy of every country and the lives of people all round the world.According to the Global Economic Prospects released by the World Bank on March 31，global GDP is expected to contract by 1.7%.The IMF’s World Economic Outlook released on April 22 projected 1.3% decline in the world economy.

这次危机进一步表明，在经济全球化条件下，世界各国的命运已紧紧联系在一起，各国相互依存、利益交融达到前所未有的程度，形成你中有我、我中有你的“利益共同体”（1）。面对当前的金融危机，没有一个国家可以独善其身，没有一个国家能够以一己之力战胜这场危机。国际社会和各国的当务之急，是继续采取一切必要措施，尽快恢复市场信心。国际社会只有加强合作，携手努力，同舟共济，才能有效应对危机。

继去年11月在华盛顿举行的二十国集团领导人金融市场和世界经济峰会之后，第二次二十国集团金融峰会于今年4月初在英国伦敦举行，取得多项积极成果，对提振市场信心、促进世界经济尽早恢复增长产生积极作用。

女士们、先生们：

当前的金融危机也使中国经济社会发展面临很大困难，主要是：外部需求持续萎缩，出口下降幅度较大；农业稳定生产、农民持续增收难度加大；一些行业产能过剩，工业增长回升乏力，经济效益继续下滑，财政收入减少，就业形势十分严峻。

This crisis has proven once again that economic globalization has bound us closely together.Countries are interdependent and interests are intertwined to an unprecedented degree，forming a community of interests where it is not easy to tell one’s interests from others’（1）.No country can stay immune from the international financial crisis or overcome the impact of the crisis on its own.It is urgent for the international institutions and every country in the world to continue taking all measures necessary to restore market confidence as soon as possible.Only when the international community strengthens cooperation and makes concerted effort will the crisis be managed effectively.In other words，we are in the same boat and everyone must row hard.

Following the Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy that brought the leaders of G20 countries together in Washington，DC last November，the second G20 financial summit was held in London early this month.This summit yielded a number of positive results that will help boost market confidence and facilitate the recovery and growth of world economy at an early date.

Ladies and Gentlemen，

The international financial crisis has presented China with grave challenges in economic and social development，including a sharp decline in exports due to continuous contraction of external demand，greater difficulties in stabilizing agricultural output and increasing farmers’income，overcapacity in some industries，sluggish recovery in industrial growth，continued drop of economic returns，reduction in fiscal revenue and severe pressure of unemployment.

面对危机，中国政府采取了积极负责的态度，及时果断调整宏观经济政策，实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，迅速出台促进经济平稳较快发展的一揽子计划，对缓解经济运行中的突出矛盾、增强信心、稳定预期，发挥了重要作用。该计划的主要内容包括：

一是全面扩大内需，增强消费需求对经济增长的拉动力，推动中国经济均衡发展。我们把政策的着力点放在全面扩大国内需求上，努力保持投资较快增长和刺激消费，着力调整内需外需结构，加快形成内需为主和积极利用外需共同拉动经济增长的格局，使中国经济向更加均衡的发展方式转变。

In face of the crisis，the Chinese government has responded vigorously and responsibly.We have made swift and decisive adjustments to our macroeconomic policies，adopted a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately relaxed monetary policy，and put in place a package plan to ensure steady and relatively fast economic growth.These measures have proved essential for easing major problems in the economy，shoring up confidence and stabilizing expectations.

The main contents of the package plan are：

First，boost domestic demand in a comprehensive way and strengthen the role of consumer demand in driving economic growth to promote balanced economic development.With policies primarily aimed at boosting domestic demand，hard efforts will be made to maintain relatively fast growth in investment，stimulate consumption and readjust the structure of domestic and external demand.We will mainly rely on domestic demand and at the same time make full use of external demand so that together，they will drive our economic growth.This will lead to the shift towards a more balanced growth pattern.

二是全面加强基础设施建设，推动中国经济协调发展。城乡、区域发展不平衡，既是中国经济社会发展中的突出矛盾，也是经济增长的巨大潜力所在。我们实施总额达4万亿元的两年投资计划，重点加强农村建设和中西部基础设施建设，加快农田水利重大工程建设，加快修建农村道路，改造农村电网，推进农村中小学标准化建设，改善农民生活条件；加快重大交通基础设施建设，特别是围绕发挥中西部地区优势，建设煤运通道、西部干线铁路和机场；积极支持保障性安居工程建设，重点解决城市低收入家庭、林区、垦区、煤矿等棚户区居民的住房问题。

Second，improve infrastructure in an all-round way and promote coordinated economic development.Although uneven development between urban and rural areas and between different regions is an acute problem in China’s economic and social development，it also indicates tremendous potential for further economic growth.In the Chinese government’s twoyear，four-trillion RMB yuan investment plan，priority will be given to rural development and infrastructure projects in central and western China.According to this plan，we will speed up the construction of key projects of farmland improvement and water conservancy，and pick up pace in building road network，upgrading power grids，promoting standardization in the construction of primary and secondary schools in rural areas and improving rural living condition.We will also accelerate the development of major transportation infrastructure，with special emphasis on building corridors for coal transportation and trunk railway lines and airports in western China so as to bring out the advantages of central and western China.We will vigorously support governmentsubsidized housing projects with priorities on addressing housing difficulties of low-income urban families and families living in shantytowns in forest regions，on reclaimed land and around coal mines.

三是全面提升产业竞争力和自主创新能力，推动中国经济可持续发展。我们制定实施汽车、钢铁等十个重点产业调整振兴规划，积极支持企业加快技术改造，淘汰落后产能，发展先进生产力。加快实施国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要，集中力量攻关，突破一批核心技术和关键共性技术。把投资的重点放在节能环保和生态建设上，加大对重点防护林和天然林资源保护工程、城镇污水、垃圾处理设施、重点节能减排工程建设的投入。我们还推出大规模减税计划，一年可减轻企业和居民负担超过5000亿元。

Third，enhance all-round industrial competitiveness and capacity of independent innovation and promote sustainable economic development.We have adopted plans for the restructuring and rejuvenation of ten key industries，such as automobile and steel.These measures encourage enterprises to accelerate technological innovation，phase out backward production facilities and develop advanced productive forces.We are speeding up the implementation of the Outline of the National Program for Medium- and Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development，and focusing on making breakthroughs in a number of core technologies and key generic technologies.We will increase input in energy conservation，environmental protection and ecological enhancement，including key forest shelterbelts and natural forests protection，urban sewage and garbage treatment facilities，and major energy-conservation and emission-reduction projects.A massive tax-cut program has been introduced，which will save businesses and individuals over 500 billion yuan each year.

四是全面提高人的素质，推动中国经济集约发展。在实施扩大内需的计划中，我们把公共资源配置向教育、医疗卫生和社会保障领域倾斜。制订实施国家中长期教育规划，大幅度增加教育投入。积极推进医药卫生体制改革，建设基本医疗保障制度，建立国家基本药物制度，健全基层医疗卫生服务体系。加快完善社会保障体系，扩大社会保障覆盖范围。我们还千方百计扩大就业，特别是大学生和农民工就业。

正如温家宝总理多次强调的，中国政府制订实施一揽子计划，是标本兼治、远近结合的，既是保增长、保民生、保稳定的应急之举，也是推动中国经济实现科学发展、和谐发展的长远之策（2）。

Fourth，work for all-round development of the people and promote intensive economic development.According to the plan of boosting domestic demand，public resources will be tilted towards education，medical and health care，and social security.A National Mediumand Long-Term Program for Education will be formulated and implemented，which will substantially increase input in education.The reform of the medical and health system will be vigorously advanced to put in place a basic medical security system and an essential drugs system，and improve the community-level medical and health service system.Improvement of the social safety net will be accelerated to expand the coverage of social security programs.We are also doing everything in our power to create jobs，especially for college graduates and rural migrant workers.

As Premier Wen Jiabao of China stressed on many occasions，the package plan is aimed at addressing both symptoms and root causes and serving both current needs and long-term goals.It is an emergency-response plan to ensure economic growth，improve people’s livelihood and maintain social stability.It also represents a long-term policy to promote scientific and harmonious development of the Chinese economy（2）.

我们高兴地看到，中国实施的一揽子计划已初见成效，经济运行出现积极变化：中国今年第一季度国内生产总值增长6.1%，全社会固定资产投资增长28.8%，社会消费品零售总额实际增长15.9%。在„家电下乡‰和小排量汽车减税等政策带动下，家电、农机等行业产销大幅增长，汽车销售创历史新高（3）。一季度城镇新增就业268万人。银行体系流动性充裕，金融市场平稳运行，社会信心提振，市场预期改善。

中国正处在工业化和城镇化快速推进阶段，蕴藏着巨大需求和增长潜力，有改革开放30年建立的物质、科技和体制基础，有充裕的资金、丰富的劳动力等要素支撑。中国将坚定不移地贯彻执行积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，毫不放松地全面实施应对危机的一揽子计划，努力把金融危机的影响降到最低限度，促进中国经济平稳较快发展。这也将继续对维护国际金融稳定和促进世界经济增长做出贡献。

……

To our satisfaction，the package plan is already paying off，with positive changes taking place in the economy：China’s GDP grew by 6.1% in the first quarter of this year.Total fixed assets investment rose by 28.8%.Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 15.9%.Thanks to the “home appliance to the countryside program” and lower taxes for small-engine cars，production and sales of household appliances and agro-machinery grew by a large margin and auto sales reached a record high（3）.The first quarter also saw 2.68 million new urban jobs created.Meanwhile，there is sufficient liquidity in the banking system，financial market operation has been smooth，public confidence has been strengthened and market expectations have improved.

China is in the process of rapid industrialization and urbanization.Demand is enormous and the potential for economic growth is huge.Thirty years of reform and opening up have laid down a solid material，scientific，technological and system foundation，and there is also ample supply of funds and labor force.China will steadfastly carry out the proactive fiscal policy and moderately relaxed monetary policy and implement the package plan designed to address the current crisis so as to minimize the impact of the financial crisis and facilitate steady and relatively fast economic growth.This will be further contribution to safeguarding global financial stability and promoting world economic growth.

...

女士们、先生们：

熟悉中国文化的朋友都知道，中国有个说法，“三十而立（4）”。就人生而言，30岁是承前启后的关键节点。对中美关系来说，历经30年的发展，也正站在新的历史起点上，面临重要发展机遇。特别是，中美关系的共同利益基础不断巩固。

……

冷战刚结束时，曾有人称中美关系处在“十字路口”，怀疑中美关系能否延续。事实证明，在新的国际形势下，中美两国的共同战略利益不是减少了而是增加了，两国的合作领域不是变窄了而是拓宽了。中美共同利益主要表现在：

一是维护世界和平与稳定。……

二是促进全球可持续发展。……

三是加强两国经贸合作，深化互利共赢格局，为两国人民带来实惠。

四是加强人民友好，维护世界多样性。……

女士们、先生们：

今年4月1日，胡锦涛主席和奥巴马总统在伦敦举行会晤，就共同努力建设21世纪积极合作全面的中美关系达成重要共识，为新时期中美关系发展指明了方向。

Ladies and Gentlemen：

Anyone who knows the Chinese culture well must have heard this before，“At thirty，one stands firm.”（4） In life，thirty years of age is a crucial linchpin.For China-US relationship，thirty years of development have brought it to a new historical starting point，where it finds major opportunities for further development.More important，the common interests between China and the United States form an increasingly strong basis for the bilateral relationship.

...

When the Cold War came to an end，some assumed that China-US relationship was at a crossroads.They were skeptical that this relationship would last.But experience has proven that under the new international situation，China and the United States have found more common strategic interests and broader areas for cooperation.The common interests of China and the United States are mainly reflected in the following aspects.

1.Maintain world peace and stability...2.Promote sustainable development in the world ...

3.Intensify bilateral economic cooperation and trade，strengthen the win-win structure of cooperation and bring tangible benefit to our peoples ...

4.Increase the friendship between our peoples and uphold diversity in the world ...

Ladies and Gentlemen，

On April 1，2009，President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama met in London，where they agreed to work together to build a positive，cooperative and comprehensive China-US relationship for the 21st century，charting the course for the development of this relationship in the new era.

大家可能已经注意到，我们两国元首对新时期中美关系所作定位是“积极合作全面的中美关系”。我们认为，这一关系具有三个突出特点：

第一，新时期中美关系应该是积极的关系

虽然中美两国社会制度、历史背景、文化传统、发展阶段不同，但双方都应该以积极的眼光看待对方，用积极的行动推进各领域对话与合作（5）。对于两国关系中出现的问题，双方要坚持相互尊重、平等相待的原则，本着平等协商、求同存异的精神，通过对话和协商妥善处理。

第二，新时期中美关系应该是合作的关系

在21世纪国际形势复杂多变的新形势下，恐怖主义、大规模杀伤性武器扩散、地区冲突等传统、非传统安全问题以及能源、环境、气候变化、毒品走私、疾病防控、减灾救灾等全球性挑战日益突出，中美这两个伟大国家面临的共同挑战和肩负的共同责任不断增加，一个健康稳定、不断发展的中美关系比以往任何时候都更加重要。双方应加强磋商与合作，携手应对各种棘手的挑战和问题，实现共赢发展。

You may have noticed and wondered about this definition given by our presidents of “positive，cooperative and comprehensive China-US relationship”.There are，in my view，three prominent features of such a relationship.

FirstFirst，it should be a positive relationship.ship.

China and the United States need to view each other from a positive perspective and take vigorous actions to push forward dialogue and cooperation in various areas despite our differences in social system，historical background，cultural tradition and stage of development（5）.When handling the problems in our bilateral relations，we must adhere to the principles of mutual respect and equality，and seek to address the problems appropriately through dialogues and consultations on an equal footing and by seeking common grounds while shelving differences.

Secondecond，it should be a cooperative relationship.ship.

Amid increased complexity and volatility in the international situation in the 21st century，there are rising global challenges from traditional and nontraditional security issues such as counter-terrorism，non-proliferation of WMD and regional conflicts，and other issues including energy，environment，climate change，drug trafficking，epidemic diseases and natural disasters.Our two great countries face increasing common challenges and shoulder greater and shared responsibilities.It is more important than ever to ensure a healthy，stable and growing China-US relationship.Our two countries should，through intensified consultation and cooperation，work together to tackle various thorny issues and achieve a win-win outcome and common development.

第三，新时期中美关系应该是全面的关系

中美除需着力在应对国际金融危机上加强合作外，还应拓展和深化经贸、反恐、防扩散、执法、能源、气候变化、科技、教育、文化、卫生等领域交流合作，推动两军交往，同时加强在国际和地区事务以及全球性问题上的沟通与协调，不断充实两国关系战略内涵。双方还要开拓思路，积极促进两国立法机构、地方、学校、青年、媒体等社会各界的对话交流，让更多的人成为中美关系的支持者和参与者。

推进新时期的中美关系，需要双方坚持从战略高度和长远角度出发，牢牢把握两国关系的正确方向，恪守中美三个联合公报原则。

……

ThirdThird，it should be a comprehensive relationship.ship.

In addition to working together on the international financial crisis，China and the United States should deepen exchanges and cooperation in economy and trade，counter-terrorism，non-proliferation，law enforcement， energy， climate change，science and technology，education，culture and public health，and boost exchanges between the militaries of the two nations.Our two countries should also strengthen communication and coordination on international and regional affairs and global issues so as to continuously enrich the strategic connotation of our bilateral ties.We need to open up our minds and vigorously encourage dialogue and exchanges between the legislatures，local governments，schools，young people and media groups so as to build up popular support for and encourage participation in China-US relations.

To push for continued progress of China-US relations in the new era，both countries should always adopt a strategic and long-term perspective，keep the bilateral relations firmly on track and abide by the principles of the three Sino-US Joint Communiqués.

...

女士们、先生们：

事实已反复证明，中美是合作伙伴而不是战略对手，中美关系是互利共赢关系而不是零和竞争关系。中美合则两利、共赢，斗则俱伤、共损。一个良好的中美关系不仅符合两国和两国人民的根本利益，而且有利于促进亚太地区乃至世界的和平、稳定和繁荣。

我坚信，只要中美双方继往开来，坚持从战略高度和长远角度出发，加强高层交往和战略对话，增进战略互信，扩大互利合作，相互尊重和照顾彼此核心利益，妥善处理分歧和敏感问题，就一定能够推动中美关系在新的历史时期持续健康稳定深入向前发展，更好地造福两国人民和世界人民。

谢谢！

Ladies and Gentlemen，

Our experience has shown time and again that China and the United States are partners in cooperation，not strategic rivals.Our relationship is a mutually beneficial and win-win relationship rather than a zero-sum game.China and the United States will both gain from cooperation and lose if we fall into conflict.Good relationship between China and the United States serves the fundamental interests of both our countries and peoples，and contributes to peace，stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the world.

I am convinced that as long as both China and the United States carry on the good work，approach the bilateral relations from a strategic and longterm perspective，strengthen high-level exchanges and strategic dialogues，enhance strategic mutual trust，expand mutually beneficial cooperation，respect and accommodate each other’s core interests，and handle differences and sensitive issues appropriately，we will surely be able to achieve sustained，sound，steady and in-depth development of China-US relations in the new historical era and make greater contribution to the people of our two countries and the people of the world.

Thank you！

咬文嚼字

1.这次危机进一步表明，在经济全球化条件下，世界各国的命运已紧紧联系在一起，各国相互依存、利益交融达到前所未有的程度，形成你中有我、我中有你的“利益共同体”。

This crisis has proven once again that economic globalization has bound us closely together.Countries are interdependent and interests are intertwined to an unprecedented degree，forming a community of interests where it is not easy to tell one’s interests from others’.

实用句型

这次危机进一步表明，在经济全球化条件下，……联系在一起，各国相互依存、利益交融……，形成……

This crisis has proven once again that economic globalization has bound ...

Countries are interdependent and interests are intertwined to ...，forming ...

实用词汇

神话传说和历史从一开始就相互交织。

From the beginning，myth and history were intertwined.

两棵大树枝干缠绕在一起。

The branches of the two trees are intertwined.

进入新世纪以来，传统安全威胁与非传统安全威胁相互交织。

Traditional and non-traditional security threats are intertwined as the world enters into a new century.

2.正如温家宝总理多次强调的，中国政府制订实施一揽子计划，是标本兼治、远近结合的，既是保增长、保民生、保稳定的应急之举，也是推动中国经济实现科学发展、和谐发展的长远之策。

As Premier Wen Jiabao of China stressed on many occasions，the package plan is aimed at addressing both symptoms and root causes and serving both current needs and long-term goals.It is an emergency-response plan to ensure economic growth，improve people’s livelihood and maintain social stability.It also represents a long-term policy to promote scientific and harmonious development of the Chinese economy.

实用句型

正如……强调的，……一揽子计划，是标本兼治……，既是保……的应急之举，也是推动……的长远之策。

As ...stressed ...，the package plan is aimed at addressing both symptoms and root causes ...It is an emergency-response plan to ensure ...

It also represents a long-term policy to promote ...

实用词汇

疲倦是由压力引起的最常见症状之一。

Tiredness is one of the most common symptoms of stress.

色斑和皱纹是皮肤老化的症状。

Age spots and wrinkles are symptoms of skin aging.

它可以让您从根源上找到并解决问题，而不是追逐表象。

It allows you to identify and address the root cause，rather than chasing symptoms.

3.在“家电下乡”和小排量汽车减税等政策带动下，家电、农机等行业产销大幅增长，汽车销售创历史新高。

Thanks to the “home appliance to the countryside program” and lower taxes for small-engine cars，production and sales of household appliances and agro-machinery grew by a large margin and auto sales reached a record high.

实用句型

在“家电下乡”……政策带动下，……产销大幅增长，……创历史新高。

Thanks to the “home appliance to the countryside program” ...，production and sales of ...grew by a large margin and ...reached a record high.

实用词汇

她以微弱优势赢得冠军。

She won the championship by a narrow margin.

国家税收连年大幅度增长。

National tax revenue grows by a large margin year after year.

要在你的汽车和另一辆车之间留出一段足够的安全距离。

Leave a good safety margin between your car and the next.

4.熟悉中国文化的朋友都知道，中国有个说法，“三十而立”。

Anyone who knows the Chinese culture well must have heard this before，“At thirty，one stands firm” .

实用句型

熟悉……的朋友都知道……“三十而立”。

Anyone who knows ...“At thirty，one stands firm” .

实用词汇

唯有坚定到底，才能得救。

He who stands firm to the end will be saved.

他意志坚强，立场坚定。

He is iron-willed and stands firm.

他立场坚定，不为任何诱惑所动摇。

He stands firm against any temptation.

5.虽然中美两国社会制度、历史背景、文化传统、发展阶段不同，但双方都应该以积极的眼光看待对方，用积极的行动推进各领域对话与合作。

China and the United States need to view each other from a positive perspective and take vigorous actions to push forward dialogue and cooperation in various areas despite our differences in social system，historical background，cultural tradition and stage of development.

实用句型

虽然中美两国……不同，但双方都应该以积极的眼光……，用积极的行动推进……

China and the United States need to...from a positive perspective and take vigorous actions to push forward ...despite our differences in...

实用词汇

越是艰险我们越向前。

The more dangers we encounter，the harder we should push forward.

该声明将对他们的斗争起巨大的推动作用。

This statement would give their struggle a great push forward.

群众性体育事业不断推进，全民健身活动中心投入使用。

Mass sports continue to push forward with fitness centers put into operation.